Who's it gonna be???

Gentle reader:

We hate the "here's the nominee shortlist" performative article. Why? Because they are almost universally wrong. Name the last time one of these lists had the actual nominee on it? Mike Hunter when Fallin needed to pick a replacement for AG Pruitt is where we have to look. So here's the trick to these lists: You whisper to a reporter that you're interested in the spot, and somehow magically you appear on one if you have a semblance of credibility. THEN, after the article comes out, it's your duty to post on X. It needs to be something like, "Oh, I don't know how I got on this list, but my family and I will pray about this opportunity if the Governor picks me." It's just to keep your name in the press, and keep the person relevant for a bit. The most gross one that we saw was Mark McBride's slobbering post when he was advertising for attention after Ryan Walters left the Superintendent's seat.

So who will be appointed to a short-term likely seven-month tour in DC? Who really cares, it's not enough time to actually fix DC, let alone even propose a bill. Really it's not much time for anything but to get a "thank you" title from the Governor. So, will it be Nathan Dahm or John O'Connor? Incredibly unlikely. Will it be Harold Hamm? Only if Stitt feels like he needs his support for his own full-term Senate run. Will it be Dustin Hilliary? Why would a climber want a terminal seat? It makes no sense as part of a long-term strategy. What makes most sense is as a thank you to a Stitt loyalist that knows policy, knows elections, would be a steady hand that can hit the ground running and be a team player with the Republican caucus to pass Trump's agenda. 

The REAL entertainment is 

that we now have a full slate of interesting races. The Governor's race was going to try to be entertaining, but no one was really going to get excited about any of the candidates. Now, though, we will have a real Senate race, possibly two open US House seats, and a shuffling of candidates all over the place. We mention a few here for you:

- Bice & Hern. Both say that they are running for the open Senate seat. In the next 30 days (before the state filing dates) one of these people will not run, either due to a Trump endorsement and/or a House leadership promotion. If both really stay in, watch Hern fail to launch for the same reasons he didn't run for Governor: he's dull and disinteresting. If these two are the only two candidates, (ignoring any Trump endorsement), Bice wins.

- Pinnell. The LG will not seek the appointment, but has options. He has cash on hand that could be used in another race, but could run for either of the Senate OR the CD1 House seat. Maybe he doesn't want to. He didn't even really look at the Governor or Corporation Commission seats, so maybe he's tired of you all.  For our money we think that he clears most of the field for CD1 if he runs there, could also be on tap for a Trump endorsement in a Senate race, or he could just take a ride down route 66 into the sunset. He'd be a great pick in any of those spots.

- Drummond. Don't forget that Drummond has been fairly public that he'd rather be in the Senate than the Governor's seat. And he worked for Democrat Senator Boren up there. We wouldn't be shocked to see Gentner switch races. But at this point he feels like he's a lock for the governor's seat. We think that's faulty thinking, but maybe it's what he's thinking.

- Kim David. Fun Fact: Other than JC Watts, who was known for something more than being a Corporation Commissioner, and Jan Eric Cartwright, no other Corporation Commissioner has gone on to another office. Denise Bode (lost AG and CD5), Bob Anthony (Lost U.S. Senate), Dana Murphy (lost LG race to Pinnell), Patrice Douglas (Lost CD5). The Corporation Commission is not a springboard to other elected offices, and Kim will find that out as well if she runs for CD1. We are big fans of her, but truth is truth.

- Nathan Dahm. He's a man without a country at this point. The Rand Paul folks will likely support him again, but he's not a "grassroots" guy anymore, and the "establishment" thinks he's still "grassroots." Without a natural base to run from, he's not gonna succeed, whether he runs for House or Senate.

- The False Prophet Jackson Lahmeyer. He came out and announced that he could run for office, but won't stop preaching. Well, because that's his hook to get a base number of voters. There's not much out there beyond his flock, and whether he runs essentially unopposed for CD1, he has no shot. 

- T.W. Shannon. Please, do the funniest thing ever and run for Senate again. And lose again. Then go away for good finally. 

Have a great week!

CW/CM/SC/WB